Charlotte home-price gains outpaced by Cleveland and New York in latest Case-Shiller index

The Charlotte metro posted another monthly gain in home prices in May as its annual pace continued to cool from record highs set last year, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.

Local home prices increased 0.6% from April to May after seasonal adjustment. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 2.3% in May — down from a staggering 26.4% uptick during the same month in 2022. That rate is also below the 3.4% annual increase recorded in April.

The monthly Case-Shiller index, released yesterday, tracks prices using a three-month, rolling average of repeat single-family home sales.

Charlotte’s year-over-year increase in May was fifth highest of the 20 markets tracked by Case-Shiller.

There was a shakeup at the top of the list among metros with the highest annual price growth. Chicago, Cleveland and New York City placed at the top, with gains of 4.6%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively. In April, Miami and Atlanta had joined Chicago in the top three spots.

“Regional differences continue to be striking,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in his analysis.

He pointed to the Rust Belt cities emerging as top performers for price growth in May.

“If this seems like an unusual occurrence to you, it seems that way to me, too. It’s been five years to the month since a cold-weather city held the top spot (and that was Seattle, which isn’t all that cold),” Lazzara said. “Since May 2018, the top-ranked cities have been Las Vegas (12 months), Phoenix (33 months), Tampa (5 months) and Miami (9 months).”

The Midwest jumped the South as the nation’s strongest region for price growth.

West Coast markets continued to see the biggest year-over-year price drops in May. Seattle and San Francisco were at the bottom with declines of 11.3% and 11%, respectively.

The national index posted a 0.5% year-over-year price decrease in May — compared to a loss of 0.1% in the previous month. The 20-city composite logged an annual decrease of 1.7%, unchanged from April, while the 10-city measure had a 1% decrease, compared to a 1.1% decline in the previous month.

Month over month, the national index recorded a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% in May. The 20-city and 10-city composites rose 1% and 1.1%, respectively, after seasonal adjustment.

“Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023,” Lazzara said. “Granted, the last four months’ price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months.”

Here’s a look at how annual home-price gains in the Charlotte metro have trended over the past year in the Case-Shiller index:

  • May 2023: up 2.3%
  • April: up 3.4%
  • March: up 4.7%
  • February: up 6%
  • January: up 8.1%
  • December: up 9.9%
  • November: up 12.6%
  • October: up 15%
  • September: up 17.8%
  • August: up 21.3%
  • July: up 23.6%
  • June: up 25.5%
  • May 2022: up 26.4%

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